The reason lies in the deeply dispiriting nature of the Conservative Party.
The more I know of Mr Cameron, the stronger my doubts become. His career in Carlton Communications seems to have consisted mainly in trying to please the boss, Mr Michael Green, in bullying his subordinates, and in misleading various journalists.
There are those who claim to discern a calming influence in the form of Mr William Hague, but I cannot see it myself. Mr Hague was the most belligerent politician to urge on Mr George Bush in Iraq – more so than Mr Tony Blair was himself. I have already referred to Lord Ashcroft. Mr Hague has hardly covered himself with glory in this respect.
As for Mr George Osborne, I confidently expect the Fraud Squad to arrest him at any moment for trying to pass himself off as a competent finance minister. Happily, or alas, it is not going to happen. Mr Cameron should switch Mr Osborne with Mr Kenneth Clarke. That is not going to happen, either.
There is no means of voting for a hung parliament. A vote for the Liberal Democrats is more rather than less likely to lead to such an outcome. But it is by no means certain. It is, I think, the most hopeless, the most despairing, general election since that of October 1974.
Watkins coined - or was instrumental in popularising - such phrases as 'the chattering classes', 'young fogies' and, a personal favourite, 'a complete ignoral'. This last was an invention of George Brown and very useful it is too. I'm inclined to give the election one of them.
I think I'll re-read Watkins' excellently gossipy and stimulating memoir of where journalism and politics met (and drank), 'A Short Walk Down Fleet Street'. It also contains added rugby, so even better.